Unveiling Bad Luck Protection Values in Datamining Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rates

Unexplained RNG and bad luck protection have been a source of frustration for players chasing legendary weapons in the fantasy MMO game Dragonflight. However, thanks to a recent hotfix by the game developer, we've managed to datamine what appears to be the actual drop rate for Fyr'alath the Dreamrender, one of the most coveted legendary weapons in the game. This discovery was made possible with the help of Dorovon, who assisted in parsing the data and generating graphs to determine the drop rates.

Disclaimers

Before we dive into the details, please take note of the following disclaimers:

1. This data is not explicitly labeled as "Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Rate," but based on various factors, we strongly believe that it is related to the Fyr'alath Bad Luck Protection (BLP).
2. Although we have made assumptions about the purpose of each data set, we are uncertain about how these graphs interact with each other. For example, we do not know exactly how the BLP from Lesser Embers and Greater Embers combine.
3. There may be an additional base drop percentage, but we lack information about its existence and value.
4. The curve data consists of a set of points, and while we have assumed linear interpolation, we cannot confirm this with certainty.

While some inaccuracies may still exist due to unknown connections, there are a couple of important takeaways from our findings that will be useful for players. They can expect their legendary weapon to drop sooner rather than later.

Data Gathering and Yesterday's Hotfix

On a particular night at approximately 9:40 PM PST, Blizzard made an announcement regarding a buff to the Bad Luck Protection on the Legendary. Two sets of hotfixes were implemented the following day, one of which involved a SpellScript that could not be datamined. However, the other set modified some curves. Typically, these curves are not significant, but considering the context, it was plausible that these specific curves contained drop rate information for Fyr'alath the Dreamrender.

The timing of the hotfix was notably close to the public announcement, and 10 out of 12 hotfixed plots were encrypted using the same encryption key as Fyr'alath the Dreamrender. The remaining 2 hotfixed plots were introduced in Patch 10.1, with 1 plot coinciding with community data on the Evoker legendary. These findings strongly suggest that we have indeed discovered the graphs and data pertaining to the legendary Bad Luck Protection.

New Fyr'alath Legendary Drop Chance

While there is still speculation regarding how this system works, including the interaction between Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath and Greater Embers of Fyr'alath, as well as the base drop chance, the following numbers should provide the community with an idea of what to expect:

TL;DR Drop Rate:

• The drop rate for Fyr'alath the Dreamrender in LFR (Looking for Raid) and Normal difficulties is extremely low.
• Starting from your 15th Heroic Fyrakk kill after the Legendary was made available (Week 3), Fyr'alath the Dreamrender is guaranteed to drop.
• On your 7th Mythic Fyrakk kill, Fyr'alath the Dreamrender is guaranteed to drop.
• The interaction between Lesser Embers and Greater Embers is unclear, but if you have been collecting them, they should be accumulating.
• Based on the current week since Amirdrassil was released, players who have killed Heroic Fyrakk every week since Week 3 should have a 100% drop chance on the week of March 5th, if they have not obtained the legendary by then.

Fyrakk Kills - Greater Embers of Fyr'alath

Here are the new plots that we believe correspond to the Greater Ember of Fyr'alath. Please note that it is uncertain whether these plots represent the actual drop chance or an additional drop chance. However, based on available information, the former seems more likely. It is important to note that these plots do not include the Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath, and our analysis assumes linear interpolation.

*Weeks 17-39 are not shown for space.

Although not officially confirmed, players are led to believe that defeating Fyrakk on any difficulty independently rolls for and grants a Greater Ember for each lower difficulty as well. In other words, defeating Fyrakk on Heroic difficulty would also reward Normal and LFR Greater Embers.

Other Bosses - Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath

Among the hotfixed Curves, there was one plot that did not align with what we assumed to be the direct drop chances for Fyrakk. Consequently, we suspect that this final plot represents the Lesser Ember of Fyr'alath drop bonus.

The exact interaction between Lesser Embers and the direct drop chance is uncertain. The most plausible explanation is that Lesser Embers provide a bonus additive percentage, but this has not been definitively confirmed.

Lesser Embers of Fyr'alath only drop in Heroic and Mythic difficulties. Community observations suggest that they drop more frequently on Mythic difficulty. With only one buffed Curve available, it is possible that all Lesser Embers have the same Bad Luck Protection but drop more frequently on Mythic difficulty.

After the buff, it appears that each Lesser Ember of Fyr'alath is worth an additional 0.6%, regardless of the difficulty it came from. Therefore, players who have collected 25 Lesser Embers should have a bonus of +15%. You can check the number of Lesser Embers you have collected using the script:

/dump C_CurrencyInfo.GetCurrencyInfo(2784)

For example, assuming an independent roll for each difficulty and additive Lessert Ember chance, a friend of mine (JP) who has killed Heroic every week and has collected 25 Lesser Embers would have around a 62% chance of obtaining the legendary weapon this week.

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